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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the latest race is profoundly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still