Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
